KNOWLEGPO-presentation

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**After Market Making** <br> The Political Economy of EU Industrial Policy]]

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*KNOWLEGPO job talk <br> Cologne - 4 April 2023*]

.center[<strong>
Luuk Schmitz </strong> (European University Institute)]
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[www.luukschmitz.com](https://www.luukschmitz.com) | <svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;width:1em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:#1D9BF0;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M459.37 151.716c.325 4.548.325 9.097.325 13.645 0 138.72-105.583 298.558-298.558 298.558-59.452 0-114.68-17.219-161.137-47.106 8.447.974 16.568 1.299 25.34 1.299 49.055 0 94.213-16.568 130.274-44.832-46.132-.975-84.792-31.188-98.112-72.772 6.498.974 12.995 1.624 19.818 1.624 9.421 0 18.843-1.3 27.614-3.573-48.081-9.747-84.143-51.98-84.143-102.985v-1.299c13.969 7.797 30.214 12.67 47.431 13.319-28.264-18.843-46.781-51.005-46.781-87.391 0-19.492 5.197-37.36 14.294-52.954 51.655 63.675 129.3 105.258 216.365 109.807-1.624-7.797-2.599-15.918-2.599-24.04 0-57.828 46.782-104.934 104.934-104.934 30.213 0 57.502 12.67 76.67 33.137 23.715-4.548 46.456-13.32 66.599-25.34-7.798 24.366-24.366 44.833-46.132 57.827 21.117-2.273 41.584-8.122 60.426-16.243-14.292 20.791-32.161 39.308-52.628 54.253z"/></svg> [@Luukschmitz](https://twitter.com/Luukschmitz) | <svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 448 512" style="height:1em;width:0.88em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:#5D50E7;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M433 179.11c0-97.2-63.71-125.7-63.71-125.7-62.52-28.7-228.56-28.4-290.48 0 0 0-63.72 28.5-63.72 125.7 0 115.7-6.6 259.4 105.63 289.1 40.51 10.7 75.32 13 103.33 11.4 50.81-2.8 79.32-18.1 79.32-18.1l-1.7-36.9s-36.31 11.4-77.12 10.1c-40.41-1.4-83-4.4-89.63-54a102.54 102.54 0 0 1-.9-13.9c85.63 20.9 158.65 9.1 178.75 6.7 56.12-6.7 105-41.3 111.23-72.9 9.8-49.8 9-121.5 9-121.5zm-75.12 125.2h-46.63v-114.2c0-49.7-64-51.6-64 6.9v62.5h-46.33V197c0-58.5-64-56.6-64-6.9v114.2H90.19c0-122.1-5.2-147.9 18.41-175 25.9-28.9 79.82-30.8 103.83 6.1l11.6 19.5 11.6-19.5c24.11-37.1 78.12-34.8 103.83-6.1 23.71 27.3 18.4 53 18.4 175z"/></svg> [@luukschmitz@mastodon.online](https://mastodon.online/@luukschmitz)]]

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## Thesis research

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- Understanding the emergence of an EU-level industrial policy

- Institutional change in European economic governance

- The role of the state in the design and direction of markets in the 21st century

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## Thesis research: recasting the role of the state

There are three fundamental ways for the state to construct and govern markets. These roles change and co-evolve with broader transformations in capitalism.

- Most recently, a changed global context has exposed the limits of market-making

- Within widely experienced market failure and a fear to fall behind competitors, demands for a more visible hand of the state pivot economic policies towards market-correcting and market-directing

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# Ideational empirics

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## The strange bedfellows of OSA

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Not all demands for support are created equally. Significant conflict exists between business, interest groups, and member states; specifically:

- A rift between demand for inward and outward-looking measures

- Neoliberal versus neo-mercantilist and socially oriented actors]

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<img src="data:image/png;base64,#jcms13428-fig-0001-m.jpg" width="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
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## Eroding belief in market making

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How are market-making, correcting, and directing reflected in policy documents, statements, and speeches?

- Corpus of 65.712 documents

- Semi-supervised machine learning approach based on BERTopic transformer models

- Dynamic topic modeling: modeling *how* industrial policy topics are discussed over time

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1. Scraping English-language documents from Commission site

2. Generating document-embeddings using the all-MiniLM-L12-v2 sentence transformer model

3. Using UMAP and HDBSCAN to identify document clusters

4. Using c-TF-IDF to understand different topics based on cluster-based word distribution

5. Manually identifying topics belonging to industrial policy

6. Developing a coding scheme to train the model with 500 hand-coded documents

7. Training a transformer model based on deberta-v3-base to classify uncoded documents in the sample
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## Summary: parallels between CBs and industrial policy

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- Demands for alternative deployment of the state to shape markets abound

- We see this both in business and social partners' positions and in official communication

- Attempts to conduct dirigiste industrial policy are based on 30-years of market-making legacy, and thus rely on (1) exemptions in the treaties and (2) private actors
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> ‘In explaining any historical course or situation, account must be taken of the fact that much in it can only be explained by the survival of elements that are actually alien to its own trends’ (Joseph Schumpeter, 1972, 111)

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<img src="data:image/png;base64,#fork.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
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## Thank You!